The American League title very well could come down to who did best in the offseason, the team that got a Sale or the one that got a bargain.
To date, the Red Sox have acquired the best starter in the market, obtaining Chris Sale from the White Sox for a prospect package — including one of the best in the game, Yoan Moncada.
To date, the Indians have secured the best hitter in the market, landing Edwin Encarnacion for three years at $60 million — roughly half of what was anticipated when the offseason began. Thus, Cleveland signed the largest free-agent contract in its history, yet still got a comparative steal.
The Red Sox and Indians are the most well-rounded teams in the AL with among the best offenses, defenses, rotations and bullpens in the sport. That Cleveland is doing it with about half the payroll speaks to a front office that has excelled at both acquisitions and signing team-friendly, long-term deals. That Encarnacion shockingly ended up as the replacement for Mike Napoli in Cleveland rather than David Ortiz in Boston just might be what separates these teams.
What the Indians are doing resembles the recent path of the Royals: a small-market AL Central team that had gone a long period without a title (for Kansas City since 1985) that lost a heartbreaking World Series Game 7 (in 2014) and reacted by appreciating its window to win and going for it. For the Royals, that meant adding Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist in July 2015 en route to a title.
The Indians now seize a moment. They added a limited partner, John Sherman (coincidentally from Kansas City) in August, which helps with overall finances. They made a deep playoff run to add substantially to their coffers. And with the acquisitions of Andrew Miller last trade deadline and Encarnacion, now the Indians will hope for a continued momentum that carries them up from the third-lowest average game attendance in the majors.
They already were anticipating better stuff next year with a full season of Miller and a return to health of Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. The Indians have not won a title since 1948 after losing the World Series in seven games to the Cubs. They are set up to be elite the next two years with only Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw among their key players not under control through at least 2018.
So what does that mean:
— The Rangers were the only AL team last year with a better record than the Red Sox and Indians. But they have bled a lot of power (Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, Ian Desmond and Mitch Moreland) while only retaining Carlos Gomez. They needed Encarnacion more than the Indians, in part because their window could be smaller. Yu Darvish is a free agent after the season, and Texas cannot expect Adrian Beltre and Cole Hamels to stay elite performers much longer.
Mike NapoliEPA
The expectation now is Texas will pivot to another slugger, such as Napoli. Texas and Boston lived by budgets and did not get Encarnacion, which explains how Cleveland snuck in for him.
— What of those sluggers? If Encarnacion got far less than anticipated, then Napoli, Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo and the rest of this deep group of free agents might have to go much lower than expected as supply continues to outstrip demand.
— The Indians were the clear AL Central favorites before Encarnacion. So, the White Sox’s decision to begin a total rebuild now looks even better. The dividends on their returns for Sale and Adam Eaton should be blossoming just as this group of Indians begins to break up. Detroit and Kansas City may be pushed further to deal — if not now, then during the season. Both teams believe they are good enough to at least vie for the wild card, but if the division clearly is out of reach, then Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander (Tigers) and Danny Duffy, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas (Royals) become even more intriguing trade possibilities between now and July 31.
— The Royals and Indians have market sizes in line with the Pirates and Rays. But, so far, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay have been unwilling to make the go-for-it expenditure of prospects or cash for finishing pieces that Kansas City (Cueto, Zobrist) and Cleveland (Miller, Encarnacion) have when faced with a chance to win. It is not a difficult case to make the Pirates and Rays could have benefited more from having Encarnacion than the Indians, and climbed from the middle ground to something more for 2017.
The Pirates may have missed their best time to strike with this core, which includes Andrew McCutchen.Getty Images
I respect how difficult a leap that is, and how problematic it is to stray from the steady, heady philosophy that allows teams from markets of those sizes to sustain contention. But Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein put it well when asked why he gave up as good a prospect as Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman last July: “If not now, when?” Officials for the Royals and Indians could have said the same — how often do these moments come along?
The Pirates were strong contenders from 2013-15, yet never made their version of Cueto or Miller. And though they were being consistent tortoises, the Cubs sprinted by them, and it is possible to believe now the best chance for this core of Pirates has come and gone.
— The Yankees traded Miller to the Indians and share a division with the Red Sox, and seeing two teams with considerably more talent in the same league should convince them further to endure the growing pains with their young players in 2017. There always are surprises and, for example, Boston and/or Cleveland could incur big injuries, or Yankees youngsters could come fast and well.
But on paper, the Red Sox got a great Sale and the Indians might have received an even better bargain, and those clubs clearly look like the class of the AL.
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