The nominees: “Call Me By Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread,” “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”
What will win: “The Shape of Water.” As award season has dragged on, it’s become clear that this has become a two-movie race, between Guillermo Del Toro’s fantasy romance and Martin McDonough’s entirely unromantic “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” While both are very much still in the picture, observant Oscar-watchers undoubtedly noticed that McDonogh wasn’t nominated for best director -- which is no small thing. Only twice in Oscar’s history has the Academy given its top award to a film that wasn’t nominated for best director: “Driving Miss Daisy” in 1990 and “Argo” in 2013. Of course, there’s a chance that “Three Billboards” could still pull of an upset here; since the Academy expanded the field in this category to include as many as 10 nominees, historical precedent hasn’t been as ironclad as it once was. But if you’re playing the odds, you’ve got to favor “The Shape of Water.”
What should win: “The Shape of Water.” I actually go back and forth here, as “Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards” were my two favorite films of 2017, and in that order. But while “Three Billboards” is an undeniably great film, “The Shape of Water” -- with its stellar cast, sweeping score and rich production design -- simply does a better job of capturing the magic of the movies. I don’t think that will be lost on Oscar voters. Neither will the film’s advocacy for love in all of its forms, which makes “The Shape of Water” a movie of the moment.
But don’t forget about: “Call Me by Your Name.” There’s a lot of affection out here for Luca Guadagnino’s coming-of-age romance. With this many films in the field, any of them could become a surprise winner, and “Call Me By Your Name” could be that film.
Ask the 8-ball: There’s been no shortage of talk about “Get Out” and its timely dose of social commentary. Is there any chance it could be a surprise winner? Answer: “Don’t count on it.”
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