EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. – The Vikings know they have their work cut out for them to get into the NFL playoffs. It’s a bit of a longshot, but you won’t see head coach Mike Zimmer throw in the towel. Heck, he probably wouldn’t quit even if they’re mathematically eliminated.
“There’s really nothing we can do other than take care of our own business,” Zimmer said Monday, one day after beating the Jaguars to keep Minnesota’s playoff hopes alive.
“I’d be lying if I didn’t say I’m hoping for some other teams. But if we don’t win it doesn’t really matter,” he said. “All we can do is do what we can do and I think if we continue to win, good things will happen.”
There’s a lot to be said about the rash of injuries. About an apparent midseason slump. About how there’s evidently no such thing as a ‘normal’ year for the Vikings. And yet, at 7-6, the Vikings still could be a playoff team a month from now.
If you ask the quants at fivethirtyeight.com (Nate Silver’s project), they’ll tell you Minnesota has a 19% playoff probability. Or, phrased the way Silver might prefer, if the remained for the 2016 was run 100 different times, there would be about 19 occurrences in which the Vikings are in the playoffs.
Here are the ways the Vikings can still get into the playoffs.
Win the NFC North.
To do so, the 7-6 Vikings would have to win all their remaining games, and the 9-4 Lions would need to lose their final 3 games. (If the Lions win another game, they’d have a 10-6 record at worst, which is the best case scenario for the Vikings; Detroit holds the tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping the Vikings this year.)
With that in mind, Vikings fans might actually choose to root for the Lions as they dance with the Giants next week, since the more likely scenario of making the playoffs is…
Get a wild card game
Even if Minnesota goes 3-0, it’s no guarantee they’ll be playoff-bound. If they go 2-1 they’ll need considerably more help.
Right now the 9-4 Giants and 8-5 Bucs hold the two NFC wild card spots.
Let’s look at the teams that could finish 10-6, which is where the Vikings would be with 3 more wins.
If Minnesota wins all 3 games, it means the Packer s will finish behind them in the standings, since the two teams have a Christmas Eve date in Lambeau. So that eliminates one wild-card opponent.
Giants (9-4): Play the Lions, and @ Philadelphia and @ Washington. Going 2-1 would put them in great shape.
Buccaneers (8-5): @ Cowboys, @ Saints, Panthers. They’re tied with the Falcons for the NFC South ead, so that race could be interesting.
Falcons (8-5): 49ers, @ Panthers, Saints
Washington (7-5-1): Panthers, @ Chicago, Giants. Washington beat the Vikings but if Minnesota can win its final 3 games, then that tiebreaker won’t matter. If the Vikings lose (or tie) any of their final three games, this picture gets quite a bit messier.
Vikings (7-6): Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, Chicago
“I know everybody says we need to win out. I just want to beat Indianapolis this week,” Zimmer said. “Then we’ll worry about the next game and the next game after that. If we start thinking about down the road, this and that or all those different things, then we’re not doing what we’re supposed to do. I’m always of the understanding that you kick it off, you win as many as you can and you count ‘em up at the end and see what happens. So that’s what we’re going to do.”
It may only be about a 1-in-5 chance the Vikings make the playoffs, according to the number crunchers. But certainly stranger things have happened.
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